Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13675

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13674, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13675
    29 Oct 2026, 03:08 UTC

    WRAP73

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionWRAP73 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfb83a8fb772c85cb

    discovery+0.30 p=0.428 n=9

    replication-0.37 p=0.334 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.428)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    01350234eb249a921a555561…
    follows cedd5de114d7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13675: WRAP73 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.11, sign flips 10; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.983, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WRAP73 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.