Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1367

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1366, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1367
    17 Oct 2026, 21:08 UTC

    PTPRF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTPRF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb3eda14729a1e44a

    discovery+0.41 p=0.273 n=9

    replication-0.38 p=0.318 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.41, p 0.273)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b7072fa689559628787a5760…
    follows e28d87ecbd82…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1367: PTPRF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.08, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18) vs -0.18 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTPRF in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up PTPRF · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.82 p 0.0034 (needs p < 0.0010)