Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13584

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13583, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13584
    29 Oct 2026, 01:42 UTC

    WASF3

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionWASF3 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf5622411ca06f2a3

    discovery+0.03 p=0.944 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.631 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.944)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    68dad9099d2345f7f2574657…
    follows 7663a5f52e06…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13584: WASF3 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.142, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for WASF3 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.