Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13578

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13577, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13578
    29 Oct 2026, 01:36 UTC

    CNTFR

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionCNTFR in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2419621e0362056

    discovery-0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.122 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b4811379b53a49aa43eedcec…
    follows e4d865e939c4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13578: CNTFR in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.13 to +0.16, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.935, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CNTFR in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.