Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13573

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.361). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13572, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13573
    29 Oct 2026, 01:31 UTC

    MAP7D1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP7D1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb2b734a2c07aaee6

    discovery-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.361)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c0a00b04f09fb37d1008a404…
    follows 1db33fa9b64a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13573: MAP7D1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.105, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP7D1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.