Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13568

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13567, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13568
    29 Oct 2026, 01:22 UTC

    ERCC3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionERCC3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4b082c03d41f3578

    discovery-0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.118 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d4e7a73fd6fd5aec22e2dfd8…
    follows e9e51f2c3859…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13568: ERCC3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.05. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ERCC3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.