Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13562

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13561, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13562
    29 Oct 2026, 01:11 UTC

    TIMM9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTIMM9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede72b35f75be9c8c5

    discovery+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication-0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    173c17c54f250411450ef0ec…
    follows 2e1d93b5303a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13562: TIMM9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.424, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TIMM9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.