Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13556

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13555, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13556
    29 Oct 2026, 00:59 UTC

    CCDC144A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCDC144A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredecf0fd315bc9aadc

    discovery+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    replication-0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.838)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e1099652a7b2a1ad9e94a03…
    follows 9feb88bf369d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13556: CCDC144A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.02, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCDC144A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.