Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13551

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.161). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13550, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13551
    29 Oct 2026, 00:54 UTC

    LPP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLPP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda1b93437c351a924

    discovery+0.51 p=0.161 n=9

    replication-0.30 p=0.436 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.51, p 0.161)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d93f396b13fa23d83946be3c…
    follows b7440a3226af…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13551: LPP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18), 95% CI -0.45 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.16, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.02 (p 0.942, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18) vs +0.02 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LPP in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up LPP · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.02 p 0.929 (needs p < 1.7e-4)