Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13549

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13548, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13549
    29 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

    C1orf162

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionC1orf162 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0edbd0dee16b3f57

    discovery-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.63, p 0.068)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b82fe5ad70ce857838863666…
    follows 708e7748a235…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13549: C1orf162 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.273, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for C1orf162 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.