Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13542

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13541, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13542
    29 Oct 2026, 00:39 UTC

    NFE2L3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFE2L3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4c05c3657ba7d10b

    discovery-0.12 p=0.767 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.750 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.12, p 0.767)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ea5b9e1ad8da31653fa03df…
    follows 11c779b83511…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13542: NFE2L3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.03, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFE2L3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.