Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13536

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13535, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13536
    29 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC

    ATP6V0D2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP6V0D2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredda8857901e4c6b22

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8b99cfed859212a7af5f8f14…
    follows 5b7b4fefab72…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13536: ATP6V0D2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.42 (p 0.084, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.18, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.269, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP6V0D2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.