Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13534

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13533, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13534
    29 Oct 2026, 00:28 UTC

    DIS3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDIS3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered45865ae6a9131a47

    discovery+0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    replication+0.77 p=0.016 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.36, p 0.336)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    874e1d8fa209d9caa872e26a…
    follows e4d1668645a7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13534: DIS3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.044, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.48 (p 0.043, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.30 to +0.52, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DIS3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.