Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1353

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1352, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1353
    17 Oct 2026, 20:49 UTC

    TXNDC12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTXNDC12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7cbd13325ec41220

    discovery+0.14 p=0.718 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.14, p 0.718)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0bb9df4641f1a9b94c574f02…
    follows 4ffa8313b97c…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1353: TXNDC12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18), 95% CI -0.44 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.03 to +0.15, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.881, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TXNDC12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.