Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13525

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.637). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13524, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13525
    29 Oct 2026, 00:16 UTC

    OLR1

    microglia, braak

    predictionOLR1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaf0e22a7128ca4b2

    discovery+0.18 p=0.637 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.637)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9598f5d9b2b843c52da9c54b…
    follows f7b179dbe698…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13525: OLR1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OLR1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.