Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13510

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.073). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13509, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13510
    28 Oct 2026, 23:56 UTC

    RNF130

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionRNF130 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb84c5d64715d6bf8

    discovery+0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    replication-0.69 p=0.038 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.62, p 0.073)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b7581e97535463702c30c22f…
    follows 74280d0c396c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13510: RNF130 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to +0.01, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RNF130 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.