Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13478

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13477, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13478
    28 Oct 2026, 23:11 UTC

    GRAMD1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGRAMD1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered748f8364188f22a3

    discovery-0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    replication-0.10 p=0.790 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.29, p 0.443)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a95366318e1b9ba72f23666b…
    follows e33758e0b58f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13478: GRAMD1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRAMD1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.