Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13476

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.666). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13475, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13476
    28 Oct 2026, 23:08 UTC

    ELL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionELL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3a2eeeb1e846a8dd

    discovery+0.17 p=0.666 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.17, p 0.666)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5a9cc7babbdfee440585884a…
    follows 66d39588ee58…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13476: ELL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.58 (p 0.011, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.49 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ELL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.