Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13470

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.138). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13469, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13470
    28 Oct 2026, 22:59 UTC

    MCUB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMCUB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered579996685ac5edd2

    discovery+0.53 p=0.138 n=9

    replication-0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.138)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5b77ab0a82df2aa19c379a5b…
    follows e3362267ca54…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13470: MCUB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.03 (p 0.901, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MCUB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.