Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13466

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.402). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13465, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13466
    28 Oct 2026, 22:53 UTC

    SPIRE1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPIRE1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered24176c2f1e6063e8

    discovery-0.32 p=0.402 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.402)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dffacf3b0b32c5c948946485…
    follows f4c97b5d80c8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13466: SPIRE1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.787, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.15, sign flips 9; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPIRE1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.