Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13464

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.583). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13463, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13464
    28 Oct 2026, 22:50 UTC

    APOOL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPOOL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9082510db80cc1e0

    discovery-0.21 p=0.583 n=9

    replication+0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.583)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b2b3128a1da5bdfb4d8fa275…
    follows 6d85165c51e8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13464: APOOL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.063, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.258, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APOOL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.