Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13459

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.161). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13458, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13459
    28 Oct 2026, 22:44 UTC

    PURG

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionPURG in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4a1fcdc78b4e0cfb

    discovery-0.51 p=0.161 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.161)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5da9c6019a46c9c8734b2c0c…
    follows 285f95cfa2de…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13459: PURG in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.46. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.671, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.14 to +0.10, sign flips 12; without severely affected donors -0.01 (p 0.969, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PURG in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.