Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13447

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13446, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13447
    28 Oct 2026, 22:26 UTC

    COQ8B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCOQ8B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6805e7c050d96ddf

    discovery-0.28 p=0.459 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.459)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b4f914d421edb4cff4cac219…
    follows 72c27e0b7d02…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13447: COQ8B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.072, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to -0.00, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for COQ8B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.