Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13439

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13438, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13439
    28 Oct 2026, 22:14 UTC

    CUL5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCUL5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb91902447027bca5

    discovery+0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication-0.35 p=0.361 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8170982defae5d98512b2131…
    follows 60b6d248b58b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13439: CUL5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.02 to +0.24, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CUL5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.