Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13415

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.406). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13414, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13415
    28 Oct 2026, 21:40 UTC

    SLC12A5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC12A5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4391eaad3eb93ccd

    discovery-0.32 p=0.406 n=9

    replication-0.47 p=0.207 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.406)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4bff22efdbd8bd60963656e5…
    follows 1fedfde718cc…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13415: SLC12A5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.48 (p 0.045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.225, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC12A5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.