Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13413

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13412, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13413
    28 Oct 2026, 21:37 UTC

    TMEM35A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM35A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54957e84d5632b4e

    discovery+0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.31, p 0.416)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4bfdd3a1d5e43eddbc230167…
    follows 6f99fe5e96b3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13413: TMEM35A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.191, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.41, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM35A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.