Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13393

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13392, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13393
    28 Oct 2026, 21:06 UTC

    MAFF

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAFF in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaaccb3f13453b01d

    discovery-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    93a1a1bc6b5d1e5b37dc27cd…
    follows 6e0ec4c5c37d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13393: MAFF in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.67 (p 0.0023, n 18) vs -0.29 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAFF in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MAFF · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.7e-4)