Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13378

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13377, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13378
    28 Oct 2026, 20:46 UTC

    AOX1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAOX1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb681fff1bc42087c

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0ace9694ea433e687e9e7b8c…
    follows a4891dc0b1a1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13378: AOX1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.627, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for AOX1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.