Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13376

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13375, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13376
    28 Oct 2026, 20:43 UTC

    PAPSS2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPAPSS2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc876964bab056570

    discovery+0.35 p=0.360 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.360)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0995b9ece4e6e9d3434bd6e7…
    follows f8f140e7e3a1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13376: PAPSS2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18), 95% CI -0.18 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.176, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PAPSS2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.