Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13372

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.416). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13371, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13372
    28 Oct 2026, 20:37 UTC

    RPS18

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS18 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2524e58ffded0ed4

    discovery-0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.266 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.416)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6ace5fcff15baa169d85c551…
    follows 7fb40fa6a69b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13372: RPS18 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.095, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.50, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS18 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.