Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13370

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13369, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13370
    28 Oct 2026, 20:35 UTC

    SYNPR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSYNPR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb3e3da9eedfec70e

    discovery+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    replication+0.60 p=0.089 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.258)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    27e3f05a88932505d4e30e7c…
    follows 9c20edcff624…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13370: SYNPR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.01 to +0.76. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.38 (p 0.125, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.37 to +0.58, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SYNPR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.