Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13363

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13362, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13363
    28 Oct 2026, 20:26 UTC

    MAL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredaf53856ab6182d7c

    discovery+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.054 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dfb0fffa64f8800bd855dcf0…
    follows e7d82c9b1564…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13363: MAL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18), 95% CI +0.19 to +0.83. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.54 to +0.68, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.60 (p 0.0083, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.