Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13347

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13346, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13347
    28 Oct 2026, 20:03 UTC

    TMEM132B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMEM132B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered02df603345d9d496

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0107c02b4d5f170bb4daddc4…
    follows 7433007b65c9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13347: TMEM132B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM132B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.