Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13343

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.560). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13342, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13343
    28 Oct 2026, 19:55 UTC

    PRPH

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRPH in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc086e7575d704cdc

    discovery-0.23 p=0.560 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.071 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.560)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c543895a0b750580d99da495…
    follows 6cc23e6e1839…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13343: PRPH in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18), 95% CI -0.69 to +0.16. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRPH in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.