Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13337

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13336, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13337
    28 Oct 2026, 19:47 UTC

    M6PR

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionM6PR in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9bdad54fe1b77205

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication+0.66 p=0.055 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3c7b1bab69c85f6aa0f32a0…
    follows 9b85230c500f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13337: M6PR in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.42 (p 0.082, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.074, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for M6PR in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.