Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13330

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13329, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13330
    28 Oct 2026, 19:38 UTC

    CCL20

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCCL20 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede8c2cb816fbe5e68

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.08 p=0.838 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6b5f4ad635699b19521457a6…
    follows 32b161954656…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13330: CCL20 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.06 to +0.18, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CCL20 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.