Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13324

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.300). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13323, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13324
    28 Oct 2026, 19:30 UTC

    ACVR1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACVR1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe34d6be4de8bf6a

    discovery+0.39 p=0.300 n=9

    replication-0.84 p=0.0048 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.300)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0cfee01407897af3bd69c8f4…
    follows 864e0c2937bd…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13324: ACVR1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.62 to +0.28. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.12, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACVR1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.