Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13318

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13317, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13318
    28 Oct 2026, 19:21 UTC

    SIN3A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSIN3A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7fb2d17c7ffa96fa

    discovery-0.07 p=0.849 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.849)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0cd717102b01097f1c27e955…
    follows 1ef09c460ea8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13318: SIN3A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.603, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.26 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SIN3A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.