Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13313

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13312, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13313
    28 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC

    GRID1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGRID1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7c1b7709d54443f6

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    995c8a222c11f56ef3675d27…
    follows 83a22855e844…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13313: GRID1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.11. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.55 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.38 (p 0.120, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GRID1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.