Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13311

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.167). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13310, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13311
    28 Oct 2026, 19:12 UTC

    RPS15A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPS15A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered61c4436900abc2a0

    discovery+0.50 p=0.167 n=9

    replication-0.05 p=0.893 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.167)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2fa515e87e2c0b153f478ee0…
    follows 9587682b24e3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13311: RPS15A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18), 95% CI -0.29 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.36, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPS15A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.