Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13302

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13301, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13302
    28 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC

    CACNG8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCACNG8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda55c85b6e89bb887

    discovery+0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    replication-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    82be5a3a2bab9c522ee8149d…
    follows 35d90e383c80…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13302: CACNG8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18), 95% CI -0.55 to +0.37. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.722, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.761, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.29 to -0.01, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.12 (p 0.646, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CACNG8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.