Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13300

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.011; held-out -0.25 p 0.508). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13299, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13300
    28 Oct 2026, 18:58 UTC

    CAPZB

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCAPZB in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59c1c89c12560a6c

    discovery-0.79 p=0.011 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.508 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.79 p 0.011; held-out -0.25 p 0.508)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    92dc0daeef666f137ca6f0b4…
    follows ec9a80dd64ce…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13300: CAPZB in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.62 (p 0.0057, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.43, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.50 (p 0.033, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CAPZB in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.