Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13287

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13286, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13287
    28 Oct 2026, 18:39 UTC

    HLA-DOB

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionHLA-DOB in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6be79d33cc659ca3

    discovery-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    replication+0.17 p=0.668 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.586)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    740519aedb936af2de6ef10f…
    follows 00c7ef6d51d4…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13287: HLA-DOB in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.188, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.150, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HLA-DOB in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.