Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13285

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13284, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13285
    28 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC

    GATA4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGATA4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered59ab092070c74d89

    discovery-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cfb7b6d963bf72a17848b8a0…
    follows c9b7106c59fb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13285: GATA4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.18. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.26 (p 0.289, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.36 (p 0.145, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GATA4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.