Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13283

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13282, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13283
    28 Oct 2026, 18:33 UTC

    GAB1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGAB1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered67e6df8706e30c14

    discovery+0.26 p=0.502 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.502)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    48a3e1853ca2b62d7b5c4856…
    follows 1456263b817c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13283: GAB1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18), 95% CI -0.37 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.13 (p 0.621, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.01 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAB1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.