Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13276

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13275, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13276
    28 Oct 2026, 18:22 UTC

    FHL1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFHL1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered645159a9899bcc62

    discovery+0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    replication+0.39 p=0.304 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.685)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6ceb5a5768515bf404d8e2a0…
    follows cab0fbaf65b9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13276: FHL1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.11 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FHL1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.