Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13261

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13260, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13261
    28 Oct 2026, 18:03 UTC

    NKX3-1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNKX3-1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereddec4e76993254969

    discovery+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.443 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.29, p 0.456)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    90e143737f851e39338420e1…
    follows aed27522a6c7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13261: NKX3-1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18), 95% CI -0.22 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.17 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.28 (p 0.265, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NKX3-1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.