Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13259

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.86 p 0.0031; held-out +0.26 p 0.500). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13258, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13259
    28 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

    HNRNPDL

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionHNRNPDL in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered903ae66f930f0b22

    discovery+0.86 p=0.0031 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.500 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.86 p 0.0031; held-out +0.26 p 0.500)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    8963e6186b66310a46058d59…
    follows 682eead6836e…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 13259: HNRNPDL in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.137, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HNRNPDL in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.