Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13253

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.416). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13252, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13253
    28 Oct 2026, 17:52 UTC

    APOO

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionAPOO in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb35877c224394bdf

    discovery-0.31 p=0.416 n=9

    replication+0.24 p=0.535 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.31, p 0.416)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ee2eb87c50ed827f58d871bf…
    follows 01305efc1d6c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13253: APOO in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.504, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.07 to +0.16, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for APOO in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.