Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 13242

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.160). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 13241, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 13242
    28 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC

    CPT1B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCPT1B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf41ae13216edd858

    discovery-0.51 p=0.160 n=9

    replication-0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.51, p 0.160)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1e73478689e13874071d2d81…
    follows ac32a22c1215…

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The swarm's case

receipt 13242: CPT1B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.14. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.46 to -0.24, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.35 (p 0.159, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CPT1B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.